Intel’s 18A and 14A Deals Could Reshape Apple’s Chip Strategy
Intel is on track to manufacture some of Apple’s custom silicon for the first time, starting with entry-level M-series chips around 2027 and potentially expanding to non‑Pro iPhone A‑series chips by 2028. This marks a major shift from Apple’s current single‑foundry dependence on TSMC and aligns with US policy and Apple’s own push for more “Made in America” production.
What Intel Is Expected to Build (and When)
- 2026: Intel finishes readying next‑gen fabs ahead of high‑volume 18A production.
- 2027: Entry‑level M‑series Mac and iPad chips manufactured on Intel’s 18A-P (2nm‑class) node, with volumes of roughly 15–20 million units per year.
- 2028: Non‑Pro iPhone A‑series SoCs (e.g., A21 or successors) begin production on Intel’s upcoming 14A process, assuming Apple formally locks in the deal by end of 2025.
Analyst Jeff Pu says Intel’s yields on 18A have already reached 60–65% as of November and aims for 70% by late 2025, a threshold Apple typically expects before committing to mass silicon orders.
Why Apple Wants Intel as a Second Foundry
Today, Apple relies almost entirely on TSMC for both A‑series (iPhone) and M‑series (Mac, iPad) processors. Diversifying to Intel offers Apple several strategic benefits:
- Supply Chain Resilience: Reduces geopolitical and capacity risk from depending on a single Taiwan‑based foundry.
- Pricing Leverage: Competition between TSMC and Intel improves Apple’s negotiating power on future nodes.
- Domestic Manufacturing: Intel’s US fabs support Apple’s “Made in America” narrative and align with US CHIPS Act incentives.
- Packaging & 3D Stacking: Intel’s 18A-P supports Foveros Direct 3D stacking, enabling denser and more efficient chip designs.
Which Apple Chips Might Move to Intel
Current analyst consensus suggests Intel will start on less complex, lower‑risk parts rather than Apple’s flagship SoCs:
- M‑series: Entry‑level MacBook Air and iPad Pro chips (informally “M7” class) built on 18A-P in 2027.
- A‑series: Non‑Pro iPhone chips (e.g., base iPhone 18/19 models) on 14A around 2028, while Pro models likely stay on TSMC’s leading 2nm and beyond.
This split gives Apple a “dual‑foundry” roadmap: TSMC for top‑end, bleeding‑edge performance parts, Intel for high‑volume but less yield‑sensitive designs.
Financial and Industry Impact for Intel
Intel’s foundry unit has posted heavy losses in recent years, with over $13 billion lost in 2024 alone. The Apple deal could generate $500 million to $1 billion annually by 2028, and more importantly, validate Intel’s 18A/14A processes in the eyes of other major fab customers like Nvidia and AMD.
- 18A: 2nm‑class, RibbonFET (gate‑all‑around) + PowerVia backside power delivery.
- 14A: Next‑gen node Intel has said it may cancel without a “large external customer”; Apple’s A‑series order could effectively save it.
How This Intersects with macOS Intel Support Ending
Apple plans to drop support for remaining Intel‑based Macs with macOS 27, fully completing the transition to Apple Silicon on the product side. Ironically, just one generation later, Apple may be relying on Intel’s foundry expertise to fabricate its in‑house chip designs.
- Intel CPUs out; Intel fabs in.
- Apple retains design control while outsourcing manufacturing.
- Shows Apple now views Intel more as a manufacturing partner than a CPU architecture supplier.
What It Means for Future iPhones and Macs
If Intel hits its yield and performance targets, by 2028 consumers could see:
- Entry‑level MacBooks and iPads with M‑series chips built in US‑based Intel fabs.
- Base iPhone models using A‑series SoCs made on Intel’s 14A node while Pro iPhones stay on TSMC’s most advanced lines.
- Potential cost stability or modest price improvements from Apple’s stronger negotiating position.
However, if Intel stumbles on 18A or 14A, Apple can keep routing the bulk of production through TSMC, treating Intel as a supplemental or backup option. In either case, Apple gains leverage—and Intel gets a rare second chance to prove itself at the cutting edge of semiconductor manufacturing.
