Analysts at IDC have highlighted the iPhone 17 series as a pivotal force behind Apple’s exceptional performance in the global smartphone market. The latest report reveals robust growth driven by strong demand, particularly in key regions, positioning Apple for a landmark year in both shipment volume and revenue. This surge underscores the enduring appeal of Apple’s flagship devices amid a competitive landscape.
Strong Growth Projections for 2025
Global smartphone shipments are now forecasted to reach 1.25 billion units in 2025, reflecting a 1.5% year-over-year increase—up from an earlier 1% estimate. Apple’s contribution stands out prominently, with iPhone shipments expected to climb 6.1% compared to the prior year, surpassing the previous 3.9% growth rate. This momentum translates to over 247 million units shipped, marking Apple’s highest volume ever recorded.
IDC senior research director Nabila Popal attributes this acceleration to the “phenomenal success” of the iPhone 17 lineup. Revenue forecasts further emphasize this triumph, projecting iPhone sales value to exceed $261 billion with 7.2% growth. The holiday quarter’s “accelerated performance” prompted IDC to revise its outlook upward across multiple markets.
China and Global Market Turnaround
China, Apple’s largest market, has emerged as a standout success story. IDC data shows Apple capturing over 20% market share in October and November, securing the top position and outpacing rivals. This performance led to a Q4 forecast revision from 9% to 17% year-over-year growth in China, transforming a projected 1% decline for 2025 into a solid 3% gain.
The positive trajectory extends beyond China, revitalizing previously sluggish regions like the U.S. and Western Europe. Comprehensive regional strength ensures 2025 becomes not just a volume record but a value pinnacle for Apple, demonstrating the iPhone 17’s broad-based demand and market dominance.
Challenges Ahead: iPhone 18 Strategy Shift
Despite 2025’s highs, IDC anticipates headwinds for Apple in 2026, projecting a 4.2% drop in iPhone shipments from the previous year. A key factor is Apple’s decision to skip the standard base iPhone 18 model, delaying its launch until 2027. Instead, the September 2026 lineup will feature only three devices: iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and iPhone Fold.
This strategic pivot aims to streamline the portfolio toward premium offerings but risks alienating budget-conscious buyers. IDC forecasts a rebound with 5.4% growth in 2027, suggesting the change may catalyze long-term premiumization. Previous reports have echoed this shift, signaling Apple’s evolving approach to lineup composition.
Industry-Wide Memory Shortages and Price Pressures
The broader smartphone sector faces contraction, with shipments declining 0.9% in 2026 due to persistent global memory component shortages. Low-to-midrange Android devices bear the brunt, prompting price increases as manufacturers grapple with elevated costs. Vendors may shift focus to higher-end models to offset margins squeezed by scarce RAM and storage chips.
Samsung exemplifies these pressures, as its semiconductor arm prioritizes AI clients over mobile divisions, potentially raising prices for upcoming Galaxy S26 models. IDC research director Anthony Scarsella notes that despite volume dips, average selling prices (ASPs) will hit a record $465, driving market value to $578.9 billion—a historic high. Shipments rebound 3% in 2027, signaling recovery.
Apple’s iPhone 17 triumph sets a high bar, but 2026 tests resilience across the industry. Strategic adaptations to supply constraints and lineup changes will shape competitive dynamics, with premium segments poised to sustain revenue growth amid moderating volumes.
